No external actor has more influence over North Korea's behavior and more leverage over its economy than China. Yet despite decades of Western hope that Beijing would use that leverage to rein in Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, China has consistently prioritized regime stability over denuclearization. Understanding why requires examining the relationship through Beijing's strategic lens rather than Washington's.
The Strategic Buffer
For China, North Korea serves a fundamental strategic purpose: it provides a buffer zone between Chinese territory and the 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea. A unified Korea allied with the United States would place American military forces directly on China's border, a scenario that Beijing considers an existential threat. This calculation has survived every provocation by Pyongyang, from nuclear tests to missile launches to the assassination of Kim Jong-nam with a nerve agent in a Malaysian airport.
The calculus is stark: China would rather live with a nuclear-armed North Korea than risk regime collapse and its consequences, which could include a flood of refugees across the Chinese border, loose nuclear weapons, and the potential for a unified Korea in the American alliance system.
Economic Leverage
China accounts for approximately 90% of North Korea's foreign trade. It supplies virtually all of North Korea's oil, the majority of its food imports, and serves as the primary market for North Korean coal, textiles, and seafood. This economic dependence gives China enormous theoretical leverage, but Beijing has been reluctant to use it except in brief periods of acute frustration.
The reason is that economic pressure carries risks. Pushing North Korea too hard could trigger the very instability that China seeks to avoid. And in recent years, the strategic environment has shifted in ways that make China even less inclined to pressure Pyongyang: as U.S.-China competition intensifies, North Korea's value as a strategic distraction and potential military ally in a Taiwan contingency has actually increased.
China does not view North Korea through a nonproliferation lens. It views North Korea through a strategic competition lens. And in that competition, a troublesome ally is still an ally. -- Former senior Chinese diplomat
The Russia Factor
Russia's growing relationship with North Korea, accelerated by the Ukraine conflict, has complicated China's position. Moscow's willingness to provide economic support and diplomatic cover to Pyongyang gives Kim Jong-un an alternative patron, reducing his dependence on Beijing and limiting China's leverage further. The emerging Russia-North Korea axis creates a new dynamic in Northeast Asian security that China views with a mixture of opportunity and concern.
Dr. Bonnie Glaser is a leading expert on Chinese foreign policy and has tracked the China-DPRK relationship for over 25 years at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.